Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?

Abstract. With progressing global warming, snowfall in Antarctica is expected to increase, which could counteract or even temporarily overcompensate increased ice-sheet mass losses caused by ice discharge and melting. For sea-level projections it therefore vital understand the processes determining changes Antarctica. Here we revisit relationship between Antarctic temperature precipitation changes, identifying explaining regional differences deviations from theoretical approach based on Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Analysing latest estimates (CMIP6, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) (RACMO2.3) model projections, find an average increase of 5.5 % annual over per degree with a minimum sensitivity 2 K−1 near Siple Coast maximum > 10 at East plateau region. This large range can be explained prevailing climatic conditions, local temperatures that counteracted some regions prevalence coastal wind regime. We compare different approaches deriving factor, cases lead up 7 percentage points for same model. Importantly, factors are found strongly dependent warming level, suggesting models base their parameterisations derived these might overestimate warming-induced particularly high-emission scenarios. would have consequences this century beyond.